There's the interesting question : should leaders dish out harsh words in public and give quiet praise in private - or vice versa. There's always good and bad things to say : just the method, that differs.
Would you rather be publicly criticized and then receive a quiet word of encouragement later, or be publicly praised and then later find out your leader really thought your performance was subpar?
What does it do for the morale of other members of the team to see someone singled out for criticism, or someone singled out for praise? Does public praise sow seeds of jealousy? Does public humiliation sow seeds of fear?
I'm thinking along the lines of harsh words in public and a quiet word of encouragement later is the way to go. Too much resentment arises when a leader singles out someone for praise, and causes division between the group. Animosity, if there is any, is most safely taken on the shoulders of the leader for being too harsh.
Wednesday
Tuesday
Sometimes
Parents totally misunderstand =p
A totally WTF moment... a friend asked to stay over for a few days and I said ok, and my mom wanted to call me and I explained that I probably wouldn't be in, coz a friend was staying over.
Took my mom a few days to come to the insane conclusion that I was having a relationship with this girl. o_o When she confronted me about it, it took me a full 30 seconds to realise what she was saying.
Argh. This is like being randomly accused of murder of someone you don't even know, that's how far fetched it felt.
( not to say the girl wasn't nice : I will always have a soft spot for her =p )
What's really annoying is that I never realised how little my parents know me. Well. Obviously. They can't know me if I don't tell them who I am : being away from home for so long, what are they to think? How could they even think, even conceive, that I might do something like that?
A totally WTF moment... a friend asked to stay over for a few days and I said ok, and my mom wanted to call me and I explained that I probably wouldn't be in, coz a friend was staying over.
Took my mom a few days to come to the insane conclusion that I was having a relationship with this girl. o_o When she confronted me about it, it took me a full 30 seconds to realise what she was saying.
Argh. This is like being randomly accused of murder of someone you don't even know, that's how far fetched it felt.
( not to say the girl wasn't nice : I will always have a soft spot for her =p )
What's really annoying is that I never realised how little my parents know me. Well. Obviously. They can't know me if I don't tell them who I am : being away from home for so long, what are they to think? How could they even think, even conceive, that I might do something like that?
Wednesday
worst day
This is the worst day of my life I declared, for dramatic effect.
My friend looked at my quizzically and asked innocently "Was it that bad?"
That kinda stopped me short. She had no idea of course.
And I had two Choices. I could tell her, or not.
I decided not to. And so she doesn't know to this day.
Do decisions made at crucial times define who you become? Sometimes I wonder if by choosing to do something different, i would have set my life down a different path. Succumbing to temptation once, makes it easier the second time.
"Well no, I'm just kidding" I said, with a sheepish grin. And she gave me a piercing look before turning away, unconvinced.
Because by the act of saying it was ok, it made it ok.
My friend looked at my quizzically and asked innocently "Was it that bad?"
That kinda stopped me short. She had no idea of course.
And I had two Choices. I could tell her, or not.
I decided not to. And so she doesn't know to this day.
Do decisions made at crucial times define who you become? Sometimes I wonder if by choosing to do something different, i would have set my life down a different path. Succumbing to temptation once, makes it easier the second time.
"Well no, I'm just kidding" I said, with a sheepish grin. And she gave me a piercing look before turning away, unconvinced.
Because by the act of saying it was ok, it made it ok.
Story of the Year
Have two of their albums right now : Page Avenue, and In the Wake of Determination.
I liked Page Avenue immediately. Track 1 And the Hero Will Drown for me will always be their defining song, since that was the one I heard first. Relentlessly pushing on with lots of energy and tempo. Sometimes you get the feeling that they don't quite know what direction they're taking, but on the whole it works out.
Some of their slightly slower (relatively) songs get it right : memorable lyrics from tracks Dive Right In and Swallow the Knife - So lets make this night, be our best mistake both seem to delve into the theme of suicide.
Ditto for Page Avenue and Sidewalks. Some very catchy phrases here - Page Avenue : the air is never dry, as the city falls asleep, days bleed into the night. and Sidewalks : the bridges are crumpled the water soaks in, to, rocks both talks about reminiscing about the past.
Second album : In the Wake of Determination - I didn't like any of their songs on first listening. More of the same, essentially.
Take me back has a good chorus : "so take me back" and nevermind that they repeated it a zillion times in that song, so what =p Same for Taste the Poison and Stereo. Pay Your Enemy is about being pissed off at someone, and boy he is really pissed off, very angry song.
The bonus track is a huge change of pace : Silent Murder. Just Dan Marsala singing quietly with some minimal guitar backing. Like the image : very evocative.
It’s a silent murder
It’s a grave that sings your song
It’s a quiet failure
It’s the one that makes you strong
We are heading down a long, empty road
We pass lost souls blinded by the cold
Watch the fire burn out
Watch the curtains slowly close
Waiting on the final words your heart already knows
We are heading down a long empty road
We pass lost souls blinded by the cold
By the cold
It’s a silent murder
It’s a grave that sings your song
I liked Page Avenue immediately. Track 1 And the Hero Will Drown for me will always be their defining song, since that was the one I heard first. Relentlessly pushing on with lots of energy and tempo. Sometimes you get the feeling that they don't quite know what direction they're taking, but on the whole it works out.
Some of their slightly slower (relatively) songs get it right : memorable lyrics from tracks Dive Right In and Swallow the Knife - So lets make this night, be our best mistake both seem to delve into the theme of suicide.
Ditto for Page Avenue and Sidewalks. Some very catchy phrases here - Page Avenue : the air is never dry, as the city falls asleep, days bleed into the night. and Sidewalks : the bridges are crumpled the water soaks in, to, rocks both talks about reminiscing about the past.
Second album : In the Wake of Determination - I didn't like any of their songs on first listening. More of the same, essentially.
Take me back has a good chorus : "so take me back" and nevermind that they repeated it a zillion times in that song, so what =p Same for Taste the Poison and Stereo. Pay Your Enemy is about being pissed off at someone, and boy he is really pissed off, very angry song.
The bonus track is a huge change of pace : Silent Murder. Just Dan Marsala singing quietly with some minimal guitar backing. Like the image : very evocative.
It’s a silent murder
It’s a grave that sings your song
It’s a quiet failure
It’s the one that makes you strong
We are heading down a long, empty road
We pass lost souls blinded by the cold
Watch the fire burn out
Watch the curtains slowly close
Waiting on the final words your heart already knows
We are heading down a long empty road
We pass lost souls blinded by the cold
By the cold
It’s a silent murder
It’s a grave that sings your song
Sunday
Memory stick issues?
This application has encountered a critical error:
ERROR #132 (0x85100084) Fatal Exception
Program: I:\World of Warcraft\WoW.exe
Exception: 0xC0000005 (ACCESS_VIOLATION) at 001B:004FF56D
The instruction at "0x004FF56D" referenced memory at "0x00000000".
The memory could not be "written".
---
Not just World of Warcraft. It used to happen with some other games, like Warcraft 3 Frozen Throne, and Simcity 4000. Also randomly happens and crashes my firewall utility.
Random errors happen when I attempt to install games as well, "fail to verify file xxx this may be a problem with your hard drive, cd drive or network.
Sigh. No choice but to buy a new stick I guess, and hope for the best. Need more memory anyway, 512mb isn't enough nowadays, I'm actually pushing 90% usage sometimes.
And so my computer isn't online much atm =p
ERROR #132 (0x85100084) Fatal Exception
Program: I:\World of Warcraft\WoW.exe
Exception: 0xC0000005 (ACCESS_VIOLATION) at 001B:004FF56D
The instruction at "0x004FF56D" referenced memory at "0x00000000".
The memory could not be "written".
---
Not just World of Warcraft. It used to happen with some other games, like Warcraft 3 Frozen Throne, and Simcity 4000. Also randomly happens and crashes my firewall utility.
Random errors happen when I attempt to install games as well, "fail to verify file xxx this may be a problem with your hard drive, cd drive or network.
Sigh. No choice but to buy a new stick I guess, and hope for the best. Need more memory anyway, 512mb isn't enough nowadays, I'm actually pushing 90% usage sometimes.
And so my computer isn't online much atm =p
Wednesday
Confessions of an anorexic
I'm just writing : it's not me with a disorder as you guys should well know. But the topic came into my head randomly.
I try to keep running, just long enough that it hurts, and then some. I slow down, try to keep my composure, keep on walking, face not betraying the pounding in my chest, my inability to catch my breath.
I have been feeling very in tune with my body over the last few months, sharply aware of its needs and wants. I think I can judge how much I need. I eat only when I am hungry, sleep when I am sleepy. Even small portions of food feel so good, even a quick 2 hour nap. I can feel my body demand sugar, or demand carbohydrates. Eating a full meal still leaves me wanting more : it's okay, there's a difference between wanting and needing. I have never enjoyed eating or sleeping so much.
What I want is control. It's about the ability to tell your body what to do, and not the other way around. There's always paradoxes at work. If you're afraid your life is going to spiral out of control, you'll have one of two reactions : either monitor everything down to the last milimetre, or just relinquish control to some higher power. The same neurological disorder gives rise to two very contrasting individuals, the control freak and the laissez faire bum.
When I feel pain I tell my body to shut up. That's exactly my response. Pain is a warning signal that something is wrong : it serves its job to inform me, and then I do not need it anymore. It becomes an inconvenience when you hurt and there is nothing you can do about it. There is nothing inherently wrong with pain itself - you are not going to be mortally injured or damaged by a cramping pain in your stomach. But you might need to be do something about it, and curling up protectively around it does nothing.
I call bullshit on how runners claim they feel so good after a big workout. It's probably because feeling normal is "good" in comparison to the punishment you're putting yourself through.
There is a dystopian view of the future where there is a culture of affluent people feeling the need to deprive themselves occasionally and pretend they enjoy it. Oh wait, it's already here.
I try to keep running, just long enough that it hurts, and then some. I slow down, try to keep my composure, keep on walking, face not betraying the pounding in my chest, my inability to catch my breath.
I have been feeling very in tune with my body over the last few months, sharply aware of its needs and wants. I think I can judge how much I need. I eat only when I am hungry, sleep when I am sleepy. Even small portions of food feel so good, even a quick 2 hour nap. I can feel my body demand sugar, or demand carbohydrates. Eating a full meal still leaves me wanting more : it's okay, there's a difference between wanting and needing. I have never enjoyed eating or sleeping so much.
What I want is control. It's about the ability to tell your body what to do, and not the other way around. There's always paradoxes at work. If you're afraid your life is going to spiral out of control, you'll have one of two reactions : either monitor everything down to the last milimetre, or just relinquish control to some higher power. The same neurological disorder gives rise to two very contrasting individuals, the control freak and the laissez faire bum.
When I feel pain I tell my body to shut up. That's exactly my response. Pain is a warning signal that something is wrong : it serves its job to inform me, and then I do not need it anymore. It becomes an inconvenience when you hurt and there is nothing you can do about it. There is nothing inherently wrong with pain itself - you are not going to be mortally injured or damaged by a cramping pain in your stomach. But you might need to be do something about it, and curling up protectively around it does nothing.
I call bullshit on how runners claim they feel so good after a big workout. It's probably because feeling normal is "good" in comparison to the punishment you're putting yourself through.
There is a dystopian view of the future where there is a culture of affluent people feeling the need to deprive themselves occasionally and pretend they enjoy it. Oh wait, it's already here.
Saturday
World of Warcraft
Between my latest contract work and trying out World of Warcraft there leaves little time for blogging.
Anyway. First impressions of WoW is that, the graphics look a bit substandard, but sacrifices in terms of eye candy had to be made in order to produce an amazingly lifelike gameworld.
The world is for the most part, completely seamless. There are no loading times between zones, you smoothly walk from zone to zone. I played a Tauren, and their race and lands are distinctly American Indian styled, with lots rolling plains, tranquil lakes and many tepee huts in their village. Their biggest city is a marvel : Thunderbluff, a sprawling city in the sky, built atop 4 linked mesas.
Little effects make a big difference : like the time of day mirroring the timezone of the server. Dawn is heralded by a slight lightening of the sky, then a pinkish dawn before a golden orange sunrise.
Sitting in Thunderbluff at night, seeing the moonshine on the pebble walk, turning around and around watching the vast expanse of sky and stars scattered across the heavens... the game has moods, like nothing else every seen before. Late night the town is quiet, when most people are sleeping, and there is a tranquil peacefulness that gives way to the hustle bustle of daytime. (screenshot cropped to 1024x768 since that's as large as Picasa allows, will look into this a bit more)
what's yummy
Few things are yummier than food served with a rich garlic + butter + cream sauce. Almost anything works, prawns, chicken, fish, etc.
(this was my "instant" f00ding tonight... throw random ingredients into pan, quick fry the garlic and chicken then add to sauce).
Brings to mind the Manhattan Fish Market back home in Malaysia.
(this was my "instant" f00ding tonight... throw random ingredients into pan, quick fry the garlic and chicken then add to sauce).
Brings to mind the Manhattan Fish Market back home in Malaysia.
taking a break
I will resume blogging next Tuesday.
(though I may have the urge to randomly come online anyway and post something, you never know).
(though I may have the urge to randomly come online anyway and post something, you never know).
Thursday
Parity
Really interesting concept. It's used in hard drive RAID setups to increase the reliability of the system.
Let's say you have 3 hard drives full of important data. You want to your system to be able to withstand the catastrophic and sudden failure of one hard drive. The first thing that comes to mind is that you need to have realtime backups - 3 more hard drives of the same size, acting as duplicate backups.
Actually, you only need 1 more hard drive to ensure that none of the data on the first 3 drives are lost by a single failure, by this really neat idea called parity.
The simplest way to explain it is as such - all data in hard drives is stored as "bits", either being 0 or 1. For parity to work, all drives should be exactly the same size. Every corresponding bit in each drive is mapped together. What happens is that, the parity drive adds up all the corresponding bits across the other drives and writes a 0 if the total is even, or a 1 if the total is odd in the location where the mapped bit was. A quick example will show this.
Parity is recalculated every time the computer writes data to any of the other drives. As you can see, this system is robust enough to withstand any single hard drive failing. If any one of HDD1, HDD2 or HDD3 fails, all you need to do is install a replacement, and the computer can deduce what data was supposed to be there by referring to the parity. Example, HDD1 dies. We know that HDD2 has a 1 bit and HDD3 has a 0 bit in that location, and the parity bit is 0, meaning that the total must be even, therefore HDD1 must have been a 1 bit (if HDD1 had been a 0 bit then the parity would have been 1 instead).
If the parity drive fails then you just put in a new hard drive and let the computer recalculate and write the parity data again.
It's a really neat idea, beautiful in its simplicity. I like it.
Let's say you have 3 hard drives full of important data. You want to your system to be able to withstand the catastrophic and sudden failure of one hard drive. The first thing that comes to mind is that you need to have realtime backups - 3 more hard drives of the same size, acting as duplicate backups.
Actually, you only need 1 more hard drive to ensure that none of the data on the first 3 drives are lost by a single failure, by this really neat idea called parity.
The simplest way to explain it is as such - all data in hard drives is stored as "bits", either being 0 or 1. For parity to work, all drives should be exactly the same size. Every corresponding bit in each drive is mapped together. What happens is that, the parity drive adds up all the corresponding bits across the other drives and writes a 0 if the total is even, or a 1 if the total is odd in the location where the mapped bit was. A quick example will show this.
| location | hdd1 | hdd2 | hdd3 | parity drive |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Parity is recalculated every time the computer writes data to any of the other drives. As you can see, this system is robust enough to withstand any single hard drive failing. If any one of HDD1, HDD2 or HDD3 fails, all you need to do is install a replacement, and the computer can deduce what data was supposed to be there by referring to the parity. Example, HDD1 dies. We know that HDD2 has a 1 bit and HDD3 has a 0 bit in that location, and the parity bit is 0, meaning that the total must be even, therefore HDD1 must have been a 1 bit (if HDD1 had been a 0 bit then the parity would have been 1 instead).
If the parity drive fails then you just put in a new hard drive and let the computer recalculate and write the parity data again.
It's a really neat idea, beautiful in its simplicity. I like it.
i am patient
I still like this picture, even after so long. And I am no closer to obtaining a high resolution image of the full picture itself (the picture shows her full body with some funky background).
I can wait. I am a patient guy.
I have a sneaky feeling there are more female readers than male readers here. What this means, I have no idea.
There are times like today when absolutely nothing of worth comes through my mind. Tomorrow I have work to do, so then I can mindlessly grind at some data. My mind is numb. I think I talked too much today. Not enough thinking and observing.
There's discussion on some board about relationship advice. The irony of it. Asking a guy who's never had a relationship is a bad idea coz he presumably has no idea what he's talking about. Asking someone who has had several relationships for advice is a bad idea because, well, his ideas apparently didn't work out for him.
So much bad advice out there. Everyone is different. If you understand someone, and you desire to give him what he lacks, become what he needs, isn't that friendship, or is that something more. Isn't it selfish, seeking to make yourself irreplaceable? I can think of half a dozen reason why you would want to get together with someone, all of them sounding borderline psychotic. It's okay, everyone is insane anyway and we might as well indulge ourselves.
My opinion is that people should be honest. But I am still not sure if more people are hurt by lies or by the truth.
And so, I wait.
Tuesday
good advice should be followed
Sniper: and my advice to you is, never kiss men with large mouths.
Vesper : uhm...
*because, like, if you didn't tell me, i would totally have gone out and unwittingly kissed men with large mouths. but thanks to you i am saved from this calamity*
Vesper : uhm...
*because, like, if you didn't tell me, i would totally have gone out and unwittingly kissed men with large mouths. but thanks to you i am saved from this calamity*
House
I am very impressed by House. Medical drama; sure we've seen it before, but not quite like this. I really like the acting, and how the entire series drives forward based around the interactions between the protagonist (Gregory House) and everyone else around him. It's very much a character driven story. The medical bit - it's just fluff really.
Well I've only seen the first season of 22 episodes. House is head of Diagnostics at a teaching hospital, which means his team gets all the mystery patients. I actually like the script writing itself - always leaving us guessing, with some nice twists, and House is wrong just often enough to surprise us. But I'm always more interested in how he deals with his staff than what his patients are sick with.
The series also leaves me feeling rather disturbed. Alot of stuff dealing with ethics - and House is such a bitter man, it's hard not to feel for him. And sometimes, patients die because there is no right decision that you can make, but luckily they didn't do that too often =p
Monday
My dog (or not really my dog anymore)
My cousin picked up a stray puppy from a rubbish dump. Parents refused to let him keep it, and dog somehow ended up with us. My brother named her Scotty so you can blame him for the crappy name =p All about 10 years plus ago. Not really my dog perhaps because I haven't spent much time home for the last 4 years.
She's a Spitz mongrel. I don't know too much about dogs, but Kahani does and her short description of Spitz is as follows - very loyal but highly independant dogs, capable of spending large amounts of time alone and away but always returning. One of the few dogs breeds that values human company above food. (sorry if I paraphrase you wrongly heh).
Well that description is certainly true. Sure she's loyal, but she absolutely loves running off on long walks on her own and then returning at odd hours yet never fails to return. She has a special bark she uses to coax us into opening the gate for her. It's instantly recognizable, different from anything else... man... this dog is training US to do what SHE wants =p She doesn't have a problem being ignored for long periods of time, which some dogs absolutely hate, she's quite happy to amuse herself with anything she can find until we turn up. She's ok if we're in close proximity but ignoring her - that's ok, but if we go outstation for a few days she goes ballistic. Normally by running away to my grandparents place and living there, or any other house that will have her. Love her coloration : mostly black (now dark brown with age) with white socks on each paw, white patch down her muzzle and neck and two eyebrows. Almost like she was painted deliberately that way =p
She's really gentle with us but shows an aversion to young children (?) and still has that killer instinct. Probably from growing up and surviving back in her rubbish dump days. She's fast on the kill, off like a shot and snatches up a cat, and I yell at her no! and she immediately complies and drops it but the cat is already dead and lying limply on the ground with no apparent injury. Died of fright is our usual diagnosis of death but I sometimes suspect it's probably a broken neck.
She just dropped into our life out of nowhere. But I guess I am really fond of her. She knows what we want her to do, and it seems she's weighing the decision in her mind whether to obey or not. Like whether to chase our pet rabbits or not (goodness that took awhile to make her understand that rabbits are not food or toys). Or whether to sneak out or not : I swear she gets a really guilty look when we catch her sneaking, and then when coming back she tries to look aloof and unconcerned as if nothing happened.
Right now she's got some problem with her airway, some obstruction. Tumor? Inoperable. She's old. Not much longer to live anyway : probably not long enough until my next visit home. But I know, really know, she's had a happy time with us, better than with (dare I say) the family that didn't want her or living on the streets. Sometimes, dogs seem more human than people do.
I'm sitting here now closing my eyes and I can imagine what she's like. What she would do if she were sitting at my feet. I heard her on the phone just now. I've always missed her here, but now more so than ever.
*edit* my mom messages me saying, swelling has subsided slightly, no change in breathing though. perhaps it's an abscess, she's on 2 antibiotics if it is, so that one might still work out. *crosses fingers* but you know how i like to prepare for the worst.
Sunday
Tada : the Monty Hall paradox
One of the loveliest probability puzzles of all times. Yes I have probably blogged about it before but I shall do so again because it's just so cool. Yes it does have relevance to the Creationism probability argument post below this, so you might want to read that first.
It's a simple game. In fact, it's the American gameshow "Let's make a deal". There are three doors. Randomly arranged behind the doors are 2 goats and a car, each one assigned to one door. If you choose the door with a car you win the car, and if you choose one with a goat you lose and get nothing.
So first, you choose a door without opening it. Here is the twist : after you choose a door, the gameshow host opens one of the remaining two doors and reveals a goat, and asks you if you want to reconsider your decision.
What is the optimal solution to this problem? Either
A. you should always stick with your current decision
B. you should always switch to the last remaining door
C. it doesn't matter what you do at this point
Well you can post what solution you feel is best in the comment box, and I shall give a solution at a later date, and perhaps a more detailed history of this problem. This problem was catapulted into public consciousness in 1990 as a result of Marylin's vos Savant's column in Parade Magazine, where she posted a solution to this problem. (she had the highest IQ in the world according to the Guiness Book of Records). There were hundreds of letters of condemnation against her by mathematics PhD holders from around the world in reaction to her solution. And apparently now this problem is so instrumental in probability teaching that it is entering even High School probability syllabus now -> so I am not sure how many of you have already come across it. I know I've told some of my friends about the Monty Hall problem before, so hush =p
Probability in Creationism arguments
It's seriously not as intuitive as it seems. High school probability is, but there are some pretty interesting concepts later on. I'm writing this because it's a genuinely interesting topic to me, and I hope most people who read this think so too =p
Instead of talking about the chance of life forming spontaneously (sorry Ash hehe), let's talk about a lottery (since gambling is more my thing). Say there are two ways to win a lottery. One is by cheating, and one is by winning honestly. Winning the lottery honestly has a low probability - only 0.0001%. Let's say I buy a ticket and win the lottery honestly.
Then someone from the company comes up to me and says, dude, no way. There's a 0.0001% chance you won honestly, and therefore 99.9999% chance you cheated, so man, we're taking you to court and you're going to get convicted and do some serious time. Argument in court then goes as follows -> chance of winning is 0.0001% therefore my probability of being innocent is 0.0001%
Whoa. Hold your horses. The comparison is clearly illogical, and unfair. We do have other things to take into account - like, the fact that cheaters who win lotteries are more rare than honest winners in the first place.
This is the main reason why the following creationism argument is false : it is argued that there's a 0.0000000001% chance that life formed spontaneously, then therefore there's a 99.9999999999% chance that God created life and therefore the overwhelming evidence is that God created life. It sounds reasonable here, but utterly false in the case of the lottery argument.
This demonstrates an important fact about probability -> it's probably the easiest branch of mathematics to make mistakes in because sometimes it is very counter-intuitive. I think I may have discussed the Monty Hall paradox before on this blog : well I feel like doing so again because it's simply so cool.
I was exposed to it as part of an assignment at university and it took me a week or much arguing and thinking to finally admit I was wrong. Of course I blame this mistake due to me still being in first year -> only in second year maths did we fully cover Bayesian theory =p Excuses aside, luckily I managed to understand it before the due date of the assignment and scored full marks for it =p
So, next post : the Monty Hall Paradox.
Instead of talking about the chance of life forming spontaneously (sorry Ash hehe), let's talk about a lottery (since gambling is more my thing). Say there are two ways to win a lottery. One is by cheating, and one is by winning honestly. Winning the lottery honestly has a low probability - only 0.0001%. Let's say I buy a ticket and win the lottery honestly.
Then someone from the company comes up to me and says, dude, no way. There's a 0.0001% chance you won honestly, and therefore 99.9999% chance you cheated, so man, we're taking you to court and you're going to get convicted and do some serious time. Argument in court then goes as follows -> chance of winning is 0.0001% therefore my probability of being innocent is 0.0001%
Whoa. Hold your horses. The comparison is clearly illogical, and unfair. We do have other things to take into account - like, the fact that cheaters who win lotteries are more rare than honest winners in the first place.
This is the main reason why the following creationism argument is false : it is argued that there's a 0.0000000001% chance that life formed spontaneously, then therefore there's a 99.9999999999% chance that God created life and therefore the overwhelming evidence is that God created life. It sounds reasonable here, but utterly false in the case of the lottery argument.
This demonstrates an important fact about probability -> it's probably the easiest branch of mathematics to make mistakes in because sometimes it is very counter-intuitive. I think I may have discussed the Monty Hall paradox before on this blog : well I feel like doing so again because it's simply so cool.
I was exposed to it as part of an assignment at university and it took me a week or much arguing and thinking to finally admit I was wrong. Of course I blame this mistake due to me still being in first year -> only in second year maths did we fully cover Bayesian theory =p Excuses aside, luckily I managed to understand it before the due date of the assignment and scored full marks for it =p
So, next post : the Monty Hall Paradox.
Saturday
Mesmer (GW) and a game mechanic insight
Visiting the beautiful lands outside Kryta, with my Mesmer. Gorgeous... =p (I mean the scenery, not the chick hehe) Goodness me, playing an interruption Mesmer is really fun once you've gotten good at the game. It's equivalent of playing a blue deck in MTG - it's all about permission and control. The enemy only does what you allow him to when you're around, given you haven't run out of spell and skill interrupts. Watching an opponent get to 80% spell completion before interrupting him, and interrupting his next 3 spells as well gives me a kick all the time...especially when doing it to a human player ^_^
Well for the game mechanic insight I got - Guild Wars tombs has perhaps the best functional gameplay for a 3 team FFA situation.
See the reason why "free for all" combats don't work is that, when there are 3 teams, the most passive team has the advantage. If team A attacks team B, both of them will take casualties and be weakened while team C continues to grow stronger, and eventually enough to wipe out either team A or B (whichever one won). Stronger not just by accumulating resources : also by information, since it can often observe the combat between team A and B. The whole game then becomes a stalemate where everyone is paralyzed and unwilling to commit to combat.
Guild Wars Altar matches are mostly played in a 3 team FFA style and it works very well - it's a 10 minute countdown to the end of the game and the team holding the Altar at the end wins. Holding the Altar grants the holding team morale boosts and ressurections every 2 minutes, which is a large advantage. What happens is that both remaining teams will eventually have to gang up on the holding team, since neither one can kill the holder alone (due to the Altar advantage). And both remaining teams WILL win, since it's 2v1, but the question is how long the holding team can last (hopefully until the end of the countdown?) and even when the holding team is defeated the two teams that were allied will now suddenly become enemies and fight each other for the right to capture the Altar. Being first to capture will give you a difficult fight against 2 teams later on - but being late to capture might have you losing by not being able to kill the holding team fast enough, or not being able to backstab your previous ally effectively enough to prevent their Altar capture attempt.
Friday
I am reading a book
and so I don't have time to write a blog.
I was going to post up a good picture I found last year detailing the various beef cuts you can obtain (Filet Mignon, Sirloin, Rump, etc). Well I was eating steak a fair bit, and testing each cut out, some are more expensive but have different textures / qualities.
Only problem is the picture itself isn't suitable for posting (Araluena knows what it is hehe) and since this is a worksafe blog I am in a bit of dilemma. Which I can't be stuffed solving now. Will do an edit later on tomorrow.
*edit* and so I have decided to post it after all, it's linked here and it's going to be rated as mature content =p For mature audiences only, so Xany that means you're not allowed to view it. (not like it's gonna stop you hehe)
*edit2* yes it was originally a porn picture =p
I was going to post up a good picture I found last year detailing the various beef cuts you can obtain (Filet Mignon, Sirloin, Rump, etc). Well I was eating steak a fair bit, and testing each cut out, some are more expensive but have different textures / qualities.
Only problem is the picture itself isn't suitable for posting (Araluena knows what it is hehe) and since this is a worksafe blog I am in a bit of dilemma. Which I can't be stuffed solving now. Will do an edit later on tomorrow.
*edit* and so I have decided to post it after all, it's linked here and it's going to be rated as mature content =p For mature audiences only, so Xany that means you're not allowed to view it. (not like it's gonna stop you hehe)
*edit2* yes it was originally a porn picture =p
Thursday
randomly feeling annoyed
Today = not good.
Too much thinking. And I was feeling annoyed for no good reason. Well no. Sure, waiting for 45 minutes for dinner might be it but I doubt so, I would normally shrug it off.
I wrote about two pages before realising that I can't possibly post any of it.
This leads on to some other thoughts : how much do you guys tell your best friends? I don't have any particularly close friends, hence most my life's story remains with me alone. I'm thinking right now about something that happened about 5 or 6 years ago. I think I told one person the full story, and that was because she demanded to know =p
What happened is I quite resolutely kept my silence and all our common friends got the story from the other party involved. At most, I said as much as I safely knew was common knowledge.
When something involves several people, the burden of privacy is multiplied rather than being shared out. You can't tell anyone your part of it without involving other people's lives, other people's secrets. This is like the prisoners dilemma : you can save yourself, and doom the other person, or you can both trust naively that you will both act in each others interests.
Someone once told me a long time ago : if your friends are the type to be satisfied without hearing both sides of the story, then they aren't worth having, so you don't have to say anything if you don't want to.
I try to believe that but it's hard. Sometimes you just want to say what you really feel, make excuses and justifications, just to make yourself look better.
Whoever said that I'm the sort of person who doesn't care much about what other people think of him... maybe they mean something else.
-_-
Too much thinking. And I was feeling annoyed for no good reason. Well no. Sure, waiting for 45 minutes for dinner might be it but I doubt so, I would normally shrug it off.
I wrote about two pages before realising that I can't possibly post any of it.
This leads on to some other thoughts : how much do you guys tell your best friends? I don't have any particularly close friends, hence most my life's story remains with me alone. I'm thinking right now about something that happened about 5 or 6 years ago. I think I told one person the full story, and that was because she demanded to know =p
What happened is I quite resolutely kept my silence and all our common friends got the story from the other party involved. At most, I said as much as I safely knew was common knowledge.
When something involves several people, the burden of privacy is multiplied rather than being shared out. You can't tell anyone your part of it without involving other people's lives, other people's secrets. This is like the prisoners dilemma : you can save yourself, and doom the other person, or you can both trust naively that you will both act in each others interests.
Someone once told me a long time ago : if your friends are the type to be satisfied without hearing both sides of the story, then they aren't worth having, so you don't have to say anything if you don't want to.
I try to believe that but it's hard. Sometimes you just want to say what you really feel, make excuses and justifications, just to make yourself look better.
Whoever said that I'm the sort of person who doesn't care much about what other people think of him... maybe they mean something else.
-_-
Tuesday
Random mistakes =p
Just thought I would share a few from my collection, I don't come across them very often. Yes I know they're from ages and ages ago. Still, they're good for a laugh.
"We didn't underestimate them. They were just a lot better than we thought." (Bobby Robson, after playing Cameroon in the 1990 World Cup finals)
"The lead car is absolutely unique, except for the one behind it which is identical." (Murray Walker — F1 Motor racing Commentator)
"I never comment on referees and I'm not going to break the habit of a lifetime for that prat." (Ron Atkinson — Football Coach)
"Strangely, in slow motion replay, the ball seemed to hang in the air for even longer." (David Acfield)
"One of the reasons Arnie (Arnold Palmer) is playing so well is that, before each tee-shot, his wife takes out his balls and kisses them — Oh my God, what have I just said?"
(US TV commentator)
"We didn't underestimate them. They were just a lot better than we thought." (Bobby Robson, after playing Cameroon in the 1990 World Cup finals)
"The lead car is absolutely unique, except for the one behind it which is identical." (Murray Walker — F1 Motor racing Commentator)
"I never comment on referees and I'm not going to break the habit of a lifetime for that prat." (Ron Atkinson — Football Coach)
"Strangely, in slow motion replay, the ball seemed to hang in the air for even longer." (David Acfield)
"One of the reasons Arnie (Arnold Palmer) is playing so well is that, before each tee-shot, his wife takes out his balls and kisses them — Oh my God, what have I just said?"
(US TV commentator)
Happy Halloween from Guild Wars!
It's amazing how much support the makers of Guild Wars are giving their players. Even more amazing given it is a subscription free game, unlike other MMORPGS like WoW (Blizzard should buck up : oh yeah, most of the original Blizzard developers did leave a year ago to start Arenanet). Frequent updates and lots of expanded content, and plenty of changes on their game based on feedback. Little things like how capes and headgear can now be hidden if you want! This is really how a developer should treat their customers : Arenanet, NcSoft, we love you =p
There was a three day pre Halloween bash in the Guild Wars game : completely redone several cities for the festival with Halloween decorations. = ) This got plenty of players doing synchro dances and just chilling out in town, having drinking parties... well, see pictures... very very cool.
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